SaberMETrics has come up with batting and pitching projections for the 2007 Mets. With this data I was also able to forcast the Mets 2007 record. We project the Mets will finish the season with a 98-64 record. I have linked all the metrics we used to Wiki pages for the explanations of the formulas. I have also attached our master spreadsheet at the end of this article.
Individual Batting: I used reasonable batting projections for each player based on prior seasons, age and expectations. Once we had our statistical projections we were able to calculate Runs Created (OBP *TB). The Mets final total for all Runs Created will be used in the Pythagorean Expectation formula to predict a 2007 season record.
Individual Pitching: Again I used reasonable pitching projection for each player based on prior seasons, age and expectations. I then calculated ERC and DICE for each pitcher. I averaged the ERC and DICE to get an estimated ERA for each pitcher. Then, using the projected IP, I was able to calculate the total runs given up for each pitcher. The Mets final total for all Runs Allowed will be used in the Pythagorean Expectation formula to predice a 2007 season record.
Season Record Predictions: We used the Pythagorean Expectation formula to predict the Mets 98-64 record. Our estimations and calculations gave us 874 Runs Scored and 688 Runs Against for the Mets in 2007. The basic calculation is Runs Created squared divided by the sum of Runs Created squared and Runs Allowed sqared (874^2) / [(874^2)+(688^2)]. The winning percentage was .608. This give the Mets 98 wins and 64 losses.
|
Mets 2007 | |
|
Runs Scored |
874 |
|
Runs Against |
688 |
|
Win % |
0.608 |
|
Wins |
98 |
|
Losses |
64 |
|
|
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
TB |
SB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
RC |
|
Jose Reyes |
180 |
25 |
10 |
15 |
320 |
60 |
0.288 |
0.350 |
0.512 |
0.862 |
112.1 |
|
David Wright |
165 |
25 |
5 |
25 |
330 |
20 |
0.300 |
0.389 |
0.600 |
0.989 |
128.3 |
|
C. Delgado |
155 |
20 |
1 |
30 |
318 |
0 |
0.282 |
0.373 |
0.578 |
0.951 |
118.6 |
|
Carlos Beltran |
160 |
30 |
1 |
30 |
343 |
18 |
0.291 |
0.391 |
0.624 |
1.014 |
134.0 |
|
Paul Lo Duca |
140 |
25 |
1 |
5 |
213 |
3 |
0.280 |
0.314 |
0.426 |
0.740 |
66.9 |
|
L. Milledge |
110 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
167 |
5 |
0.275 |
0.326 |
0.418 |
0.743 |
54.4 |
|
Jose Valentin |
95 |
10 |
1 |
10 |
158 |
6 |
0.271 |
0.338 |
0.451 |
0.789 |
53.4 |
|
Endy Chavez |
95 |
10 |
2 |
4 |
137 |
12 |
0.271 |
0.320 |
0.391 |
0.711 |
43.8 |
|
Moises Alou |
90 |
15 |
0 |
10 |
160 |
0 |
0.281 |
0.361 |
0.500 |
0.861 |
57.8 |
|
Shawn Green |
70 |
15 |
0 |
5 |
120 |
0 |
0.219 |
0.265 |
0.375 |
0.640 |
31.8 |
|
Julio Franco |
40 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
60 |
6 |
0.267 |
0.325 |
0.400 |
0.725 |
19.5 |
|
Ramon Castro |
30 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
60 |
0 |
0.231 |
0.310 |
0.462 |
0.772 |
18.6 |
|
David Newhan |
18 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
26 |
0 |
0.257 |
0.307 |
0.371 |
0.678 |
8.0 |
|
Damion Easley |
17 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
23 |
0 |
0.243 |
0.293 |
0.329 |
0.622 |
