How good were the Mets pitchers in 2006?  We are going to use some standard baseball statistics and some Sabermetrics in order to analyze just how good the Mets pitchers were last season.  Before we jump into the analysis we need to understand how the players are grouped and what stats we will be using.

1) The Groupings:  The pitchers are split into three groups base on their roles and how much they pitched during the regular season (no playoff data).  The first group contains the starters that threw more the 90 innings (Glavine, Trachsel, Pedro, El Duque, and Maine).  The second group consists of the relievers who threw more then 50 innings (Heilman, Oliver, Wagner, Bradford, Feliciano, and Sanchez).  The third group consist of every other pitcher who took the mound for the Mets in 2006.

2) The Stats: We are going to look at 7 statistics from 2006.  They are IP (innings pitched), K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings), W/9 (Walks per 9 innings), WHIP (Walks + Hits per 9 innings), ERC (Component ERA – also known as CERA), DICE (Defense Independent Component ERA), and ERA (Earned Run Average).

Finally, we need to know why we care about some of these statistics.  IP, ERA, WHIP, K/9 and W/9 are simple enough and most baseball fans are comfortable with these stats.  Everyone knows what to look for in these statistics.  We all like a pitcher to have an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.30, and a high K/9 coupled with a low W/9.  But what about ERC and DICE?  How are they calculated and what do they mean?  Let’s take a quick look:

ERC: Component ERA (aka CERA) was invented by Bill James.  This statistic attempts to forecast a pitcher’s ERA using only hits and walks allowed.  The ERC formula basically takes pitchers HITS and WALKS given up and multiplies the total by a PTB (Pitcher’s Total Bases estimate).  That number is then divided by the Batters Faced in a season TIMES Innings Pitched.  This gives an estimate of how many runs a pitcher will give up in an inning.  The number is multiplied by 9 to make it a 9 inning average (like ERA).  The -0.56 is to adjust to real ERA.

ERC=((H+BB+HBP)*PTB)/(BFP*IP))*9-.56

Where PTB = .89*(1.255*(H-HR)+4*HR)+.56*(BB+HBP-IBB)

Once criticism about ERC is that HITS are too dependent on your team’s defensive ability (a pitcher’s home ball park can also be a factor).  Critics say that HRs, walks and strikeouts are the only factors that are completely controlled by the pitcher.  That brings us to DICE.

DICE: Defense Independent Component ERA was invented by Clay Dreslough in 2001.  DICE takes out the defense factor in ERC.  HRs have a multiple of 13, Walks a multiple of 3, and Strikeouts a multiple of -2.  The formula is basically saying Strikeouts help you ERA, Walks hurt your ERA, and Homeruns absolutely kill you ERA.  Since these are the only real categories pitchers have total control over, they are the only categories factored in.

DICE = 3.00 + [(13HR+3(BB+HBP)-2K)/IP]

Lets now take a look how the 2006 Mets did on the mound.  The players are sorted by IPs and the criteria mentioned above in the Groupings section.  I hae attached my spreadsheet at the bottom of this post for those who want to work with the data.